Matthew Yglesias 2024 preds vs Manifold Time Capsule: Will Democrats lose at least one senate seat outside of WV/MT/OH?
Basic
5
Ṁ106resolved Nov 13
Resolved
YES1D
1W
1M
ALL
A time-sensitive copy of this market:
This market, however closes on 1/14/2024.
This is so we can measure Manifold's calibration against Yglesias's at the relative same point in time given enough traders (which I could make a further meta-market on). Manifold will have a 2 week advantage, but I want it to catch on (I also probably won't add the sports predictions which will obviously give Manifold an advantage). I will also resolve N/A if this actually occurs during the period before 1/14/2024.
Matt predicts 60% for this question
Matt's calibration for reference:
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000
and3.00
Related questions
Related questions
Matt Yglesias 2024 predictions: Will Democrats lose at least one senate seat outside of WV/MT/OH?
98% chance
Matthew Yglesias 2024 predictions: No Supreme Court vacancy
86% chance
Will @MatthewYglesias's 2024 predictions perform at least as well as his 2023 predictions by his own assessment?
32% chance
Will a Democrat win the 2024 US Senate election in West Virginia?
1% chance
Will Manifold's 2024 general election predictions outperform FiveThirtyEight's?
55% chance
Matthew Yglesias 2024 predictions vs Manifold Time Capsule: No Biden change in Biden’s cabinet
44% chance
Matthew Yglesias 2024 predictions vs Manifold Time Capsule: No supreme court vacancy
78% chance
Matthew Yglesias 2024 predictions: Net electoral college bias continues to favor the GOP
85% chance
Matthew Yglesias 2024 predictions vs Manifold Time Capsule: Immigration/border/asylum legislation passes
39% chance
Matthew Yglesias 2024 predictions: Pro-GOP electoral college bias diminishes from its 2020 level
96% chance