https://medicalxpress.com/news/2025-02-female-runner-minute-mile-barrier.html

A recent study claimed that with optimal pacing, Faith Kipyegon could have broken 4 minutes. (Her actual time was 4 minutes, 7.64 seconds.)

Some races have pacers and wavelights to help runners break world records. That still counts as an official race.

"A controlled experiment" is meant to include conditions like what Eliud Kipchoge used to run a marathon in under two hours, which did not qualify as an official record.

• Update 2025-04-23 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Attempt Details:

  • The upcoming attempt scheduled for June 26 is a carefully controlled experiment.

  • This attempt is not an official race and should be considered as such when resolving the market.

• Update 2025-04-24 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Timing and Conditions for Resolution:

  • The market will not be resolved until the end of 2030, regardless of the outcome of the controlled experiment.

  • A successful controlled experiment (e.g., Faith's attempt) will not trigger market resolution.

  • The final outcome depends on whether a female runner achieves a sub-4-minute mile in an official race before the end of 2030.