The term "AI Winter" refers to a period of disillusionment and decreased interest in artificial intelligence research and development, often signified by a reduction in funding, publications, and media attention. This question aims to forecast whether there will be an "AI Bust" or "AI Winter" by the end of 2025.

The indicators to be used for this determination are AI publications, AI investment, and AI google trends mentions. At least 2 out of these 3 metrics need to meet specific criteria to resolve this question positively.

Resolution Criteria:

This question will resolve positively if at least 2 out of the 3 following criteria are met by the end of 2025:

"AI Investment": Data from the "Year-over-year Private Investment in AI" from the AI Index report or a comparable index shows a decrease of more than 50% in 2024 or 2025 compared to the 3-year average of 2020 to 2022.

"AI Publications": Data from the "Total Number of AI Publications" from the AI Index report or a comparable index shows a decrease of more than 50% in 2024 or 2025 compared to the 3-year average of 2020 to 2022.

"AI Google Trends": The worldwide average Google Trends score (out of 100) for the keyword “artificial intelligence” in 2024 is within 5 points of the average score from January 2004 to December 2020 – with the range set from 01.01.2004 to 31.12.2025.

In the event the AI Index report is no longer available, comparable sources of data will be used for assessment. In the case of disputed or unclear data, the resolution of this question may be postponed until reliable data becomes available.