As per Business Insider, SEC Chariman Gary Gensler says this is 'nearly unavoidable.'
"I do think we will in the future have a financial crisis . . .[and] in the after action reports people will say 'Aha! There was either one data aggregator or one model . . . we've relied on.' Maybe it's in the mortgage market. Maybe it's in some sector of the equity market," he said.
I figured it would be fun to see how likely we actually think it is. Note that the 'models go haywire' scenario is not required, only that AI be to blame in some way.
This resolves to YES if there is a period of one month during which the stock market (S&P 500) declines in nominal terms by 20% or more between market closes AND that decline is generally attributed to AI (e.g. Wikipedia says this, or whatever passes for consensus authority by 2032, I will use best judgment).
This resolve to NO if that does not happen.
This market can only resolve early if the event happens.
1,000
3.00My friends and I were talking about this. Some said that automation would kill millions of jobs, others that technology would create new opportunities. I thought about how AI is already affecting stock exchanges and banks. I decided to read analysts on the checkfreescore website - they explain the risks and opportunities of AI in an interesting way. So far, I am inclined to think that everything depends on how we manage these systems. I recommend reading!
On a recent podcast (with Kyla Scanlon) Tyler Cowen said a ‘crash’ will probably happen (he didn’t say when) but by ‘crash’ he meant a bubble popping (like @Zardoru asked below). Would that count?
Note that Cowen previously disagreed with Gensler (see my comment below).
@NicoDelon I asked a related question with a shorter timeline and indexed to Cowen's judgment: /NicoDelon/will-ai-cause-a-market-crash-2024
@MattLashofSullivan Close to close. I don't really care if there is a strange print for two minutes, and tried to make that clear in the description.