Will there be a fatality of any kind attributed, at least in part, to aircraft controller error before 2025.
Plus
18
Ṁ4528Jan 2
6%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
See https://www.nytimes.com/2023/12/02/business/air-traffic-controllers-safety.html
for the inspiration of this market.
The event needs to occur in the U.S. by air traffic controllers monitored by the F.A.A.
I will use media reports to determine this market. If there are some weird edge cases, I’m thinking of using a GPT to read coverage from major news sources to determine the answer. Still, as there is some subjectivity in judging this market, I will not bet.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000and
3.00
1,0003.00Sort by:
@nikki It includes any air accident (chartered, private etc) where findings show that a mistake by air traffic controllers contributed to the accident.
Changed this market about ten minutes after putting it up because I didn’t stipulate that it had to be in the U.S.
Related questions
Related questions
Will there be a fatal airliner crash in the US before the end of 2024?
11% chance
Will there be a second civil aviation airport collision with fatalities in 2024?
14% chance
Will there be a major aviation accident this year with greater loss of life than 2023?
26% chance
Will any minority pilot on a US airline make a mistake that results in at least one other person's death before 2028?
44% chance
How many aviation accidents and incidents will be added to this Wiki page in 2024?
Will there be a fatal space accident before 2030?
52% chance
Will there be another spaceflight-related death by 2030?
49% chance
Will a major airliner accident happen in the US, physically injuring more than 25 people within 2024?
6% chance
Will 90% of FAA air traffic controllers be fired as a direct result of Artificial Intelligence by 2030?
15% chance
Will AI be directly responsible for causing an accident that results in 500 deaths by 2028?
35% chance