In the Australian federal election for the 48th Parliament of Australia, will the Australian Labor Party win a majority of the seats in the House of Representatives?
Plus
68
Ṁ34k2025
23%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
The federal election to elect the 48th Parliament must take place before the 28th of September, 2025. If the Australian Labor Party wins a majority of seats in the lower house in this election, this market resolves to YES.
To be clear, because they have to win a majority of seats for this market to resolve to YES, even if they form a minority government (e.g. as they did in 2010) with the help of crossbenchers declaring support on confidence and supply, this market will still resolve to NO.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000and
3.00
1,0003.00Sort by:
@chrisjbillington I think that's a decent bet on your part - I take the probability to be be about 50%, wouldn't go as low as 35% currently.
Related questions
Related questions
Will Labor win the 2025 Australian federal election?
47% chance
Which seats will the Australian Labor Party win at the next general election for the House of Representatives?
Which Australian political party will become the dominant party after the next House election (as of Feb 2024)?
What will be true of the next general election for the House of Representatives in Australia?
Will the Liberal/National Coalition win more seats in the House of Representatives in the next Australian federal election than it did in the 2022 Australian federal election?
79% chance
Will the party that wins the next Australian federal election have a majority in the Senate?
11% chance
Who will be the next leader of the Australian Labor Party?
After the next Australian federal election, will any party control a majority of the seats in the Senate?
11% chance
Will the Labour Party win the next UK general election?
35% chance
Will the next Australian federal election happen in 2024?
1% chance