In the Australian federal election for the 48th Parliament of Australia, will the Australian Labor Party win a majority of the seats in the House of Representatives? | Manifold

In the Australian federal election for the 48th Parliament of Australia, will the Australian Labor Party win a majority of the seats in the House of Representatives?

77

1kṀ66k

Oct 25

39%

chance

1D

1W

1M

ALL

The federal election to elect the 48th Parliament must take place before the 28th of September, 2025. If the Australian Labor Party wins a majority of seats in the lower house in this election, this market resolves to YES.

To be clear, because they have to win a majority of seats for this market to resolve to YES, even if they form a minority government (e.g. as they did in 2010) with the help of crossbenchers declaring support on confidence and supply, this market will still resolve to NO.

Australian Politics

Australian Labor Party

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opened a Ṁ15,000 NO at 35% order

@chrisjbillington order up if you’re interested

Are we being so fr

This is more overvalued than ever.

https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2023/nov/28/most-voters-now-disapprove-of-anthony-albaneses-performance-as-pm-guardian-essential-poll-finds

@AlexPaton I put a limit order up for Ṁ1000 YES at 35% if you're interested

@chrisjbillington I think that's a decent bet on your part - I take the probability to be be about 50%, wouldn't go as low as 35% currently.

The long run trend is pretty steadily towards minor parties and independents.

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