In the Australian federal election for the 48th Parliament of Australia, will the Australian Labor Party win a majority of the seats in the House of Representatives?
85
1kṀ87k
Oct 25
51%
chance

The federal election to elect the 48th Parliament must take place before the 28th of September, 2025. If the Australian Labor Party wins a majority of seats in the lower house in this election, this market resolves to YES.

To be clear, because they have to win a majority of seats for this market to resolve to YES, even if they form a minority government (e.g. as they did in 2010) with the help of crossbenchers declaring support on confidence and supply, this market will still resolve to NO.

Politics
Australian Politics
Australia
Australian Labor Party
Get
Ṁ1,000
to start trading!

People are also trading

Which Australian political party will become the dominant party after the next House election (as of Feb 2024)?
How many seats will the Greens win in the 2025 Australian Federal Election?
After the next Australian federal election, will any party control a majority of the seats in the Senate?
5% chance
Which seats will the Australian Labor Party win at the next general election for the House of Representatives?
2025 Australian election: Labor outperforms 2022 result?
53% chance
Will Anthony Albanese remain the leader of the Australian Labor Party through to the end of October 2025?
74% chance
Will the Liberal/National Coalition win more seats in the House of Representatives in the next Australian federal election than it did in the 2022 Australian federal election?
40% chance
Will Anthony Albanese remain the leader of the Australian Labor Party until the next election?
99% chance
Will the party that wins the next Australian federal election have a majority in the Senate?
5% chance
What will be true of the next general election for the House of Representatives in Australia?
Sort by:
bought Ṁ80 YES

Record High: https://au.yougov.com/politics/articles/52063-yougov-poll-labor-reaches-record-high-two-party-preferred-lead-as-coalition-primary-vote-slumps

filled aṀ1,321YES at 60% order

@chrisjbillington have you bet real money this one? if you think it’s 60% likely sportsbet is giving you a 50% expected return

@brod I haven't. Thinking about it, but it's not like I'm actually super confident. 60% might have been too high.

Today's resolve poll giving 53.5% to Labor

bought Ṁ100 YES

@chrisjbillington Roy Morgan 54.5% oof

https://au.yougov.com/politics/articles/51999-yougov-poll-labor-extends-lead-over-coalition-to-525-475

opened a Ṁ15,000 NO at 35% order

@chrisjbillington order up if you’re interested

Are we being so fr

This is more overvalued than ever.

https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2023/nov/28/most-voters-now-disapprove-of-anthony-albaneses-performance-as-pm-guardian-essential-poll-finds

@AlexPaton I put a limit order up for Ṁ1000 YES at 35% if you're interested

@chrisjbillington I think that's a decent bet on your part - I take the probability to be be about 50%, wouldn't go as low as 35% currently.

The long run trend is pretty steadily towards minor parties and independents.

People are also trading

Which Australian political party will become the dominant party after the next House election (as of Feb 2024)?
How many seats will the Greens win in the 2025 Australian Federal Election?
After the next Australian federal election, will any party control a majority of the seats in the Senate?
5% chance
Which seats will the Australian Labor Party win at the next general election for the House of Representatives?
2025 Australian election: Labor outperforms 2022 result?
53% chance
Will Anthony Albanese remain the leader of the Australian Labor Party through to the end of October 2025?
-6% 1d74% chance
Will the Liberal/National Coalition win more seats in the House of Representatives in the next Australian federal election than it did in the 2022 Australian federal election?
40% chance
Will Anthony Albanese remain the leader of the Australian Labor Party until the next election?
99% chance
Will the party that wins the next Australian federal election have a majority in the Senate?
5% chance
What will be true of the next general election for the House of Representatives in Australia?
© Manifold Markets, Inc.•Terms + Mana-only Terms•Privacy•Rules