General rules

Answers in this market are unlinked; any number of them may resolve YES. Additional answers may be added as the election draws nearer.

The market's close date is subject to change.

Information specific to each answer

All six of the 'Teal independents' first elected in 2022 will be re-elected

This answer will resolve YES if the following MPs are all re-elected: Kate Chaney, Zoe Daniel, Monique Ryan, Sophie Scamps, Kylea Tink, Allegra Spender. It will resolve NO if at least one is not.

It will coincide with a half-Senate election

This answer will resolve YES if the next general election for the House of Representatives is held simultaneously to a half-Senate election. It will resolve NO if the next federal election is triggered by a double dissolution or if the elections for the House of Representatives and the Senate are not simultaneous.

At least one Labor MP will be unseated as a result of the 'centre squeeze effect'

This answer will resolve YES if all of the following things are true in at least one electorate:

• The seat is contested by a Labor incumbent

• The Labor candidate finishes in third place after the distribution of preferences

• It is known, or can be safely assumed, that the Labor candidate would have won the two-candidate-preferred vote against the first-placed candidate

• It is known, or can be safely assumed, that the Labor candidate would have won the two-candidate-preferred vote against the second-placed candidate

A past example of such an occurrence is the defeat of Terri Butler in 2022: https://results.aec.gov.au/27966/Website/HouseDivisionPage-27966-163.htm

The final Newspoll before the election will overestimate the Coalition's share of the 2PP vote by 1.5 percentage points or more

A number that can be rounded up to 1.5 (e.g. 1.47) does not qualify.

It will result in a hung parliament

This answer will resolve YES if no party or coalition of parties wins an absolute majority of seats in the House of Representatives.

The editorial team of the Sydney Morning Herald will endorse Labor

This answer will resolve YES if the Sydney Morning Herald publishes an editorial endorsement of the Labor Party or its leadership before the election. In any other scenario, it will resolve NO.

One Nation will win at least one seat

This answer will resolve YES if at least one candidate from the One Nation party wins a seat in the House of Representatives.

Barnaby Joyce will be the leader of the Nationals on the day of the election

This answer will resolve YES if Barnaby Joyce is the leader of the National Party at any time on the day of the election.

Clive Palmer will spend more than $1,000,000 on Facebook ads in the 90 days leading up to the election

This answer will resolve YES if more than $1,000,000 of Facebook advertising expenditure can be attributed to Clive Palmer or his political party in the 90 days before the election is held. Data: https://www.facebook.com/ads/library/report/

The Greens will receive at least 15% of first preference votes nationally

A number that can be rounded up to 15% (e.g. 14.7%) does not qualify.

The final Newspoll before the election will overestimate Labor's share of the 2PP vote by 1.5 percentage points or more

A number that can be rounded up to 1.5 (e.g. 1.47) does not qualify.

The Age will not make an editorial endorsement

This answer will resolve YES if The Age does not give an editorial endorsement to any party or candidate.

The Liberals will win a majority of seats in Western Australia

Western Australia is set to have 16 seats in the next House of Representatives. This answer will resolve YES if the Liberal Party wins more than eight of them.