If Kamala Harris is elected President of the United States, and a registered Republican is nominated to her cabinet or to a cabinet-level position, and that person confirmed by the Senate, all before the end of April 30, 2025, this market will resolve YES.
Otherwise NO.
1,000
3.00@Tripping What if the Republican is from one of the several states without party registration (e.g. Texas)?
@Pearland2025 What do you think would be appropriate? For a start I think analogous actions like taking an oath of affiliation would count.
I'm not aware of any common oaths of affiliation, but it depends on what specifically you want to measure. Harris mentioned appointing someone who "was a Republican," which could include those now identifying as independents or Democrats. One of these two definitions could work, depending on your focus:
1. Self-Identified Republican: This option pays out if Kamala Harris nominates a person who currently self-identifies as a Republican at the time of their nomination. This includes individuals who are registered Republicans or who publicly declare themselves as Republicans in recent statements or actions.
2. Formerly Republican, Now Independent or Other: This option pays out if Kamala Harris nominates a person who, up until 2016 or later, identified as a Republican but has since left the party. The nominee should still be most prominently known for their work as a Republican.
You could include just 1 or 1 and 2.
@Pearland2025 I think just 1 is fine, registered Republicans and clear Self-ID Republicans where registration isn't an option is fine.