Note: Answers must be an EXACT match of a FULL headline. No words extra, no words missing. I have another market about "closet resembling" headlines on a specific day. Marnix has a market for substrings found within any day's headlines.
For a market to resolve "YES," it must be an exact match according to my judgement, aside from letter case, punctuation, formatting quirks, and most spelling differences (I'll ignore unintentional mistakes, Kyiv vs kiev doesn't matter, etc.). This means no words extra and no words missing. This probably sounds quite hard — and in fact it may be — but also the flashier headlines tend to be quite short so I think some predictions are doable.
For an answer in this market to resolve "YES," it must have been added at least 2 calendar days before the headline appeared in print. For example, a headline that appears on a December 31 issue will only count toward an answer in this market submitted before 23:59:59 eastern time on December 29.
For the sake of this market, a New York Times cover page article headline (print) is any article headline (i.e. large, bold, or separated text that precedes an article) that is present on the front page of a daily print edition of the New York Times (most days have 4-7 of these). It does not include subheadlines (smaller headline text) when those are present, even if those are prominent. For example, the headline after Obama's first election simply reads "OBAMA" according to these criteria. It also does not include the ~12 shortened article snippets below the solid black line at the bottom of the page (these aren't traditionally considered cover page articles).
For example, the February 27, 2024 cover page has the following cover page headlines, and only these headlines:
"As Sweden Joins NATO, Bloc Asserts Its Resolve"
"Delays in Data Make Housing Riddle for Fed"
"Weary but Hopeful, Ukrainians Are Unbowed"
"Biden Is Losing Party Loyalists Over Gaza War"
"$1 Billion Gift to Make Tuition At Bronx Medical School Free"
"The Business of Child Care Is Back on the Brink"
The June 25, 2022 cover page has the following cover page headlines, and only these headlines:
"Roe Overturned"
"A Conservative Supermajority May Be Just Getting Started"
"Ending One Fight and Starting Another in a Polarized America"
"For Collins, Decision Is a Betrayal by Kavanaugh"
"In an Instant, Midterm Contests Are Scrambled"
1,000
3.00@LucaMasters "Full headline" makes e 95% sure I'm right, but I'm confused as to why we get people buying things like "Gaza" and "Landmark Decision". (I guess maybe that second one.)
@LucaMasters Oops sorry for the late response. Yeah you have it right. People might be buying things like "Gaza" because they misunderstand, but the NYT also has used one-word headlines for stylistic effect before (see the Obama example from the market description).
I feel bad buying so many no shares in this market.
I tend to doubt any possibility should be higher than 10%. The probability is the conjunction of P(event) * P(exact headline). For example, even if you were certain Jimmy Carter will die, now the question is whether the headline will read "Jimmy Carter dies" or "Jimmy Carter dead at 100" or "Former President Carter dead at 99" or whatever.
Then again, maybe I'm wrong! I just would be skeptical of any market that runs at more than 10% right now.
@NoRespect I'm worried other people are misreading this too :/ If this applies to you (dear reader) can you like this comment?
@TylerJohnston I started a question based on what I (and what I think other people) misread this question as 😛
@Marnix Amazing thank you haha :) You might be in for a lot of work monitoring this one for resolutions though!
People are betting this up quite high, so I just want to point out this detail from the resolution criteria:
"For a market to resolve "YES," it must be an exact match ... this means no words extra and no words missing"
So this market won't resolve yes if Biden wins and the headline is e.g. "Biden beats trump"
Not trying to be pedantic btw... just don't want to turn this market into a generic "what will happen in the world?" market. I think it's a fun mix of what will happen + what will the NYT write about + how will they write about it.