The Ministry for the Future Predictions: Will a Drone Swarm Assassinate a Public Figure by 2040?
Plus
16
Ṁ4932040
74%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Inspired by the Kim Stanley Robinson novel "The Ministry for the Future". Robinson describes drone swarms as follows:
"They were more powerful than the atomic bomb, in this very particular sense: you could use them. And they couldn’t be stopped ... They were small, they launched from mobile launchers, they came from all directions in a coordinated attack in which they only congregated at their target in the last few second of their flights."
They are a menace to anybody with name recognition in the book. Will this become reality?
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000
and3.00
Related questions
Related questions
Will a politician be assassinated by a Group 1 drone in a WEIRD country before end of Q1 2025?
17% chance
Will a civilian be killed by an individually-targeted, AI-guided, kamikaze aerial drone by the end of 2024?
30% chance
Will a drone swarm cause havoc in a major city by 2026?
36% chance
Will there be an assassination attempt on a CEO of a major AI lab by January 1, 2035?
42% chance
Will there be an assassination attempt on a CEO of a major AI lab by January 1, 2030?
24% chance
Will a fully autonomous AI-powered US military drone kill a human being without express human direction before 2025?
20% chance
Will AI kill >20% of the human population before 2030?
7% chance
Will a human intentionally kill another human in space by 2050?
46% chance
When will a notable American politician or corporate executive be assassinated by drone?
24% chance
Will anyone in the United States be killed by an individually-targeted, AI-guided, kamikaze aerial drone by the end of 2024?
6% chance