When will a notable American politician or corporate executive be assassinated by a cheap non state drone within the US?
Basic
8
Ṁ2342125
22%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
https://twitter.com/ilaffey2/status/1759353732075294766
They're notable if there's a Wikipedia article about them.
If it happens in 2024, it'll resolve 1%; if it happens in 2025, it'll resolve 2%, etc.
Cheap means more like the drone in the tweet than a drone like the Predator drone for example.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000and
3.00
1,0003.00Related questions
Related questions
When will a notable American politician or corporate executive be assassinated by drone?
24% chance
Will a politician be assassinated by a Group 1 drone in a WEIRD country before end of Q1 2025?
17% chance
Will a US president order the assassination of any of the following, and get away without criminal charges before 2029?
Will there be an assassination of an American politician by the end of 2025?
42% chance
Will there be an assassination attempt on a CEO of a major AI lab by January 1, 2035?
42% chance
Will a civilian be killed by an individually-targeted, AI-guided, kamikaze aerial drone by the end of 2024?
30% chance
Will there be an assassination attempt on a CEO of a major AI lab by January 1, 2030?
24% chance
Major US politician assassinated in Trump's name (2028)
25% chance
Will another US president be killed before 2060?
38% chance
Will there be a drone terror attack that kills at least 1 person in the United States before 2026?
41% chance