Red flag = a warning of danger, usually used in the context of behavior that is considered problematic or that signifies an increased likelihood that someone engages in other behaviors that are problematic.
I will poll Manifold users in the next few months on any response added here. Options will be "Yes", "No", and "Unsure". An option will resolve "YES" only if "Yes" has a majority of all votes, beating out "No" and "Unsure" combined. If "No" and "Unsure" combine to a number greater than or equal to "Yes" I will resolve the option as "No". I will abide by the results of each poll.
Please add responses.
@ZacParker Might be worth updating the description to say 'If "No" and "Unsure" combine to a number greater than or equal'
Next clutch of polls - now only two weeks until close.
https://manifold.markets/ZacParker/do-you-consider-someone-daytrading
https://manifold.markets/ZacParker/do-you-consider-someone-running-or
https://manifold.markets/ZacParker/do-you-consider-someone-writing-nsf
https://manifold.markets/ZacParker/do-you-consider-someone-writing-fan
https://manifold.markets/ZacParker/do-you-consider-someone-having-a-pr
Can we get some more no or unsure votes on 'reaction content'? only need 3 more, and it does not meet the resolution criteria! "Red flag = a warning of danger", see ppl who changed their vote below. Reaction youtubers aren't dangerous. It's just a job.
@TonyPepperoni How is creating reaction content a "red flag" for general problematic behavior? It's just a career? Reaction videos aren't high quality as far as youtube videos go but, like, why would someone who creates one be any more likely to engage in other negative behaviors than, say, someone who does sales or accounting? The market isn't about if reaction videos are bad
Like, can any YES voters explain why it fits the concept of 'red flag' in the description? Should I, for instance, be hesitant to be hang out with a reaction video creator?
Like, I get we don't like reaction videos, but I don't like ads either, that doesn't mean I think working in the ad industry is a red flag.
I'll admit, I hadn't read the definition of red flag before voting on that one, so I might not be the best advocate for the YES voters.
I was thinking of red flags in the sense of "people I'd want to avoid". The act of making low effort YouTube videos isn't bad, but I think it's a strong signal that their personality and values will conflict with my own. This makes it a strong negative indicator for me personally, but people with more similar values or a wider tolerance of them probably wouldn't have any issues.
With the actual red flag definition, I'd vote unsure, but still leaning a tiny bit YES since "behaviors that are problematic" covers a lot. I think that if the another person has a vastly different utility function from myself, that would make it hard to cooperate and could lead to problems between us.
First clutch of polls:
https://manifold.markets/ZacParker/do-you-consider-promoting-an-nft-on
https://manifold.markets/ZacParker/do-you-consider-creating-conspiracy
https://manifold.markets/ZacParker/do-you-consider-having-a-truth-soci
https://manifold.markets/ZacParker/do-you-consider-promoting-a-cryptoc
https://manifold.markets/ZacParker/do-you-consider-someone-describing
https://manifold.markets/ZacParker/do-you-considering-runningoperating
https://manifold.markets/ZacParker/do-you-consider-being-a-member-of-m
https://manifold.markets/ZacParker/do-you-consider-having-an-account-o
https://manifold.markets/ZacParker/do-you-consider-having-an-anime-pro
https://manifold.markets/ZacParker/do-you-consider-having-a-profile-pi
They will end within 30 days and resolve ASAP afterwards.
when you say "poll in the next few months" does it mean you'll run all the polls at once, picking some random time to run them? is the plan to leave the market open while the polls are out?
essentially (assuming you're creating Manifold polls) you'll have 30+ individual polls for each of the things on the market and we're less voting here on personal outlook and more on what we assume poll respondents will feel is true for them, and I'm curious about the approach for circulating them (including how long they'll run?)