26% chance. Resolves to YES if there is a strike that substantially disrupts our east coast port capacity for at least three full weeks prior to the end of 2024 (e.g. a lot of the ports are largely shut down for a minimum of 7 full days before reopening). Resolves to NO if this does not happen, or it is clear it will not happen (e.g. the strike is resolved fully, so we won't wait until EOY). Ryan Peterson's judgment will be used if he makes a clear statement either way, if not I will use my own. See: https://twitter.com/typesfast/status/1838670975610888411 Also see: https://manifold.markets/ZviMowshowitz/will-there-be-a-major-strike-at-eas?play=true (1 week instead of 3, otherwise identical)