Refers to the start of 2030.
GMT in case of specific timing doubts.
This market is conditional on: /Mira/if-mira-applies-to-openai-will-mira
Related questions
Will @Mira destroy the world by contributing to development of cat girls? ๐ค
/MrLuke255/conditional-on-mira-getting-a-job-a-e344151b91e0
@MrLuke255 "The first generation of catgirls wasn't genetically compatible, so humanity voluntarily extincted itself by everyone preferring catgirls and nobody having any children."
But that would happen later than 2030.
@firstuserhere Fascinating! So considering the present market, the one you link to there, and https://manifold.markets/MartinRandall/will-ai-wipe-out-humanity-before-th-d8733b2114a8, assuming all three markets are rationally priced (which I can't see any issue with), we can conclude that there is a ~2.5% chance that Mira will be responsible for human extinction (by joining OpenAI) without actually causing it. Such a subtle philosophical conundrum!
Edited to add: that's at least 2.5%, because in principle it would be possible for Mira to wipe out humanity by non-AI means.