Which of these Forbes predictions will hold up?
Plus
18
Ṁ5272030
39%
Nvidia’s market capitalization will be meaningfully lower than it is today. Intel’s will be meaningfully higher than it is today.
75%
We will interact with a wide range of AIs in our daily lives as naturally as we interact with other humans today.
82%
Over one hundred thousand humanoid robots will be deployed in the real world.
41%
“Agents” and “AGI” will be outdated terms that are no longer widely used.
69%
AI-driven job loss will be one of the most widely discussed political and social issues.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000
and3.00
Sort by:
I feel like AGI as a term is already cracking at the seams. LeCun hates it, Altman thinks it's a bit nebulous, and if memory serves correct Hassabis has also expressed some criticism of the term. Outsiders like Cowen also are regularly expressing doubts about the use of the term.
I'm not as bullish about the uselessness of agents as a term, but it's a tempting valuation.
Related questions
Related questions
Will prediction markets become mainstream by 2028?
70% chance
Will people care about prediction markets by 2025?
30% chance
Who will be among the top 5 richest person in the world at the end of 2024? (According to Forbes)
Which of InvestAnswers 2024 money making predictions will be correct?
Which of these AI predictions will happen in 2024?
Which prediction markets will win?
At the end of 2024, will any prediction markets have a clear lead over the others?
How many of the FT writers’ predictions for the world in 2024 will turn out to be correct?
66% chance
Which one is the most accurate prediction market? (2024)
How many of my predictions in "Markets for Lemons and the Great Logging Off" will come to pass by the end of 2027?
4.5
Which prediction markets and forecasting platforms will still be opening new markets/questions through 2028?