Will the next LLM released by OpenAI be worse than GPT-4 at MMLU?
Plus
23
Ṁ1163Jan 1
16%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
The next LLM = the next family of LLM in cases of doubt - an updated version of a previous model doesn't count as a new model for this market
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000and
3.00
1,0003.00Sort by:
Afaik OpenAI has not made a model worse than their previous model before. (gpt-3.5-turbo & text-davinci-003 perform about the same overall so i'm not counting that) and I'm pretty sure ada/babbage/curie/davinci were all released at the same time, and the best of those, davinci, was better than early gpt-3, so that wouldn't count either
Related questions
Related questions
Will Google have a better LLM than OpenAI by 2025?
19% chance
Will there be a OpenAI LLM known as GPT-4.5? by 2033
35% chance
Will there be an open source LLM as good as GPT4 by the end of 2024?
68% chance
Will Llama-4 be (open sourced and) as good as GPT-4?
87% chance
Will there be an open source LLM as good as GPT4 by June 2024?
18% chance
When will OpenAI release a more capable LLM?
Will an open-source LLM beat or match GPT-4 by the end of 2024?
82% chance
Will OpenAI have the best LLM in 2024?
59% chance
Will a 15 billion parameter LLM match or outperform GPT4 in 2024?
24% chance
Will xAI develop a more capable LLM than GPT-5 by 2026
59% chance