How much time will pass between an LLM being released that beats GPT4 and the next OpenAI LLM being released? (+ANSWERS)
Standard
11
Ṁ1652030
1D
1W
1M
ALL
8%
1 week
27%
1 month
8%
6 months
19%
Never (ie OpenAI releases a better model before anyone else can)
10%
3 months
28%
Inspired by this xeet https://twitter.com/chheplo/status/1762169694516301944
How much time will pass between a non-OpenAI LLM being released (like Gemini, Mixtral, etc) that beats GPT4, and OpenAI releasing their next LLM (GPT4.5, or GPT5, etc)?
Only the largest answer without going over will be chosen. So no saying 1 second and expecting to get all the mana.
Get
1,000
and1.00
Related questions
Related questions
Will xAI release an LLM with BIG-Bench score as good as GPT-4 Turbo before the end of 2024?
76% chance
Will there be a OpenAI LLM known as GPT-4.5? by 2033
35% chance
Will there be an open source LLM as good as GPT4 by the end of 2024?
68% chance
Will there be an open source LLM as good as GPT4 by June 2024?
18% chance
Which next-gen frontier LLMs will be released before GPT-5? (2025)
Will an open-source LLM beat or match GPT-4 by the end of 2024?
81% chance
Will there be an LLM (as good as GPT-4) that was trained with 1/100th the energy consumed to train GPT-4, by 2026?
53% chance
Will xAI develop a more capable LLM than GPT-5 by 2026
50% chance
Will OpenAI have the best LLM in 2024?
59% chance
Will a 15 billion parameter LLM match or outperform GPT4 in 2024?
24% chance