Which parties will surmount the five percent hurdle at the next German federal election?
Basic
18
Ṁ457Sep 30
98.4%
AfD
98%
Die Grünen
97%
CDU
97%
SPD
62%
CSU
51%
BSW
10%
FDP
7%
Die Linke
4%
Freie Wähler
An answer resolves YES if the named party receives at least 5% of 'second votes' at the next federal election for the Bundestag. (Note: circumventing the electoral threshold does not count as surmounting it.)
The proportion of parliamentary seats allocated to a party is determined based on the ratio of valid second votes.
https://www.bundestag.de/services/glossar/glossar/Z/zweitstimme-246398
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74% chance