The next German federal election will be held on or before 26 October 2025 to elect the members of the 21st Bundestag.

What share of the propotional vote ('Zweitstimme') will each party receive?

The market will resolve the same as the official final results published by the Bundeswahlleiterin.

Current polls are available at https://www.politico.eu/europe-poll-of-polls/germany/

See https://www.bpb.de/kurz-knapp/zahlen-und-fakten/bundestagswahlen/340863/waehlerstimmen/ for the result of the last election.

CDU and CSU are considered seperate parties for this question

Let me know if you want me to add additional parties.