Gary Marcus made this tweet https://x.com/garymarcus/status/1766871625075409381?s=46&t=B66Otgh2q0Cl91N3A5P9ZA
with 7 predictions on LLMs this market will track them and their outcomes. I will not trade on this market. Some will be pretty subjective I will do my best to find a consensus resolution but may well end up resolving them N/A if it is not clear.
@alexlitz What's our current count here? This is the current Chatbot Arena leaderboard, but some of these are plausibly the same model and shouldn't be double counted:
1
1299 +4/-5 15244 Google Proprietary 2023/11 2
1286 +3/-4 72589 OpenAI Proprietary 2023/10 3
1277 +4/-5 16064 OpenAI Proprietary 2023/10 3
1271 +3/-4 42939 Anthropic Proprietary 2024/4 4
Gemini Advanced App (2024-05-14)
1266 +3/-3 52126 Google Proprietary Online 4
1264 +5/-4 13831 Meta Llama 3.1 Community 2023/12 6
1260 +3/-3 64638 Google Proprietary 2023/11 6
1257 +3/-4 55593 Google Proprietary 2023/11 6