Depending on the POTUS election winner, will @Tumbles be late to pay back a loan (before EOY)?
➕
Plus
64
Ṁ220k
Jan 1
8%
Donald Trump wins the election, Tumbles is late on a loan this year
91%
Donald Trump wins the election, Tumbles isn't late on a loan this year
0%
Joe Biden wins the election, Tumbles is late on a loan this year
0.7%
Joe Biden wins the election, Tumbles isn't late on a loan this year
0%
Someone else wins the election, Tumbles is late on a loan this year
0.1%
Someone else wins the election, Tumbles isn't late on a loan this year

The first condition resolves based on the preponderance of news coverage reporting the winner of the 2024 POTUS Election. "Someone Else" refers to someone other than Joe Biden or Donald Trump winning the election (e.g. other candidates are nominated, death, disqualified, etc.).

The second condition resolves based on whether @Tumbles has been late on any loan between market creation and December 31, 2024 @11:59:59 PM (EST). The primary source to resolve this is here, but if that market is closed, deleted, or there is strong evidence to the contrary additional evidence will be considered.

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sold Ṁ0 Donald Trump wins th... NO

@Tumbles I'd suggest editing the options that have "is never late" to "isn't late this year" for clarity, matching the title and description.

Got it. But Tumbles is not the market owner, :). In retrospect this is a bit awkward, but the market title and description has always been about lateness at the end of the year

@bluefrog haha sorry, I got confused xD yeah I agree it's a bit awkward, but hopefully clearer.

bought Ṁ355 Donald Trump wins th... NO

@bluefrog I guess the only issue was with the word "never" there, so it might be fine if all options said "is/isn't late" without being redundant about the timeframe. Less awkward?

Manifold announces major changes to the mana economy. Including prohibiting mana transfers.
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I like the color choices gj

bought Ṁ10 Joe Biden wins the e... NO

My cat's market can be arbitraged against this one:

reposted

Good market! Adding it to the Tumbles Financial Complex dashboard!

Woops double comment

bought Ṁ25 Donald Trump wins th... YES

The motivation of this market is that @Tumbles has several loans and has fairly large positions which are tied to Joe Biden winning / Donald Trump losing the election.

This market may help potential creditors decide the risk of late payment based on the US election results.

bought Ṁ97 Donald Trump wins th... YES
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bought Ṁ7 Donald Trump wins th... YES
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