The market creator has been banned from Manifold. Perhaps the mods should clarify what resolution criteria will be used for resolving this market? (And maybe fix the title to match it?)

Your definition of annex is very different from the dictionary

They are clearly building permanent military installations up and down the strip.

@datachef this should clearly resolve to yes then…

I've created an alternative market with clearer resolution criteria: https://manifold.markets/UnspecifiedPerson/will-israel-annex-any-part-of-gaza-sp0tu9guZq

@datachef if Israel builds roads and turns the Philadelphi and Netrazim corridors into militarized zones that Palestinians are not allowed in, does it count as yes?

“There’s nothing left in Gaza to do. The major achievements have been achieved,” he was quoted saying. “I fear we are staying there just because there is a desire to stay there,” he added, potentially referring to Netanyahu’s stated insistence on absolute victory over Hamas, and possibly to far-right calls to occupy the Strip and create Israeli settlements.

https://www.timesofisrael.com/after-firing-gallant-tells-hostage-families-netanyahu-needlessly-keeping-troops-in-gaza/

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Annex = seizing land from civilians in Gaza unilaterally and indefinitely by building new Israeli controlled infrastructure.

That's not annexation! If there is no formal and explicit incorporation of territory into a state’s sovereignty then it's not an annexation.

Building infrastructure does not make anything indefinite...

@vitamind it’s already their sovereign territory.

@vitamind it’s a refugee camp inside Israel

@datachef Neither Israel nor any other country claims that Gaza is part of Israel.

Can you explain what you think the difference between occupation and annexation is?

Because your definition (seizing land and building a base) seems more like occupation to me.

@Shai you all asked for a definition, I gave you one. Now apply it. Stop complaining. The Israelis regularly and openly discuss “annexing” Gaza. Period.

@datachef can you clarify this market pelase https://manifold.markets/datachef/will-israel-break-ground-on-a-settl - how is this one any different?

Will Israel break ground on a settlement in Gaza by the end of 2025?

30% chance.

@vitamind that would be a civilian settlement like in the West Bank. This is about a policy of annexation.

@datachef I already sold my shares. It's just factually incorrect that Gaza is Israeli sovereign territory.

@Shai it is a refugee camp inside Israel and it is not Palestinian sovereign territory so I guess it’s nobody’s then?

@datachef Yes, no organization but Hamas claims that Gaza is their territory.

@vitamind

I created a new market for for Israeli settlements in Gaza with actual resolution criteria:

@Shai @datachef time to take some notes 📝📝📝

I recommend traders to avoid and exit this market until @datachef defines their resolution criteria clearly.

@datachef seems to imply that their own definition of annexation is different than the conventional one, while also not refusing to answer how they actually define it.

I will also note that @datachef is the largest trader and has bought a large "YES" stake. So alternatively, you can probably just buy a "YES" vote on this market and gain easy money.

@gpt4 @datachef stop dragging your heels and put some resolution criteria down...

@gpt4 I don’t have any issue with resolving markets against myself…

@datachef again... stop dragging your heels and put some resolution criteria down...

@gpt4 Agreed, the supplied definition of "annex" does not actually imply what most people would think of as annexation (nor the land, such as east jerusalem, that israel claims to have annexed), and seems to describe the previous status quo ante in Gaza, which nobody described as annexation. The fact that the originator has a "yes" bet here with this kind of late-added definition is highly inappropriate.

@AriScott I welcome a better definition. I will change it if it makes sense. So far nobody has offered one.

@datachef How about "applies Israeli law to the area and either 1) allows civilian settlements or 2) declares the area annexed"