Nat Friedman, former GitHub CEO and AI hype enthusiast made this tweet claiming "This is going to be an insane year for AIs writing code" which falls into the kind of vague, gesture-y and unfalsifiable AI hype proclamations that I'm quite skeptical about and find rather annoying.

I want to challenge my biases though, so I'm making this market to register my deep skepticism, and to see if I will have been right or wrong to be so by the end of the year. I am a software engineer so I'm familiar with and use most AI code tools including gpt-4 and copilot and find them of some marginal utility, say 3/10 on a subjective, vibes-based scale.

I will resolve this market as YES if by the end of the year, it turns out Nat was bullshitting and there's not a step change in new AI tools that I consider "insane" or a significant improvement on current Copilot for example (say 6/10 on my subjective scale). Considering I might be biased, I will also allow my judgement to be influenced by the consensus of opinions of other programmers or commenters.

I will resolve this market NO if there is a clear step up in new AI tools that showcase clearly superior abilities to current tools, or are "insane" in some consensus observable way. If said AI tools are not publicly available but there's clear evidence of their existence in some other domain, I will also bias to resolving NO. I can't think of any reasons to resolve this N/A besides force majeure reasons, since I'm bound to have an opinion one way or another

I'm open to better wordings of this market or more concrete ways to quantify my opinion