Resolves YES if a 5th Starship launch, intended to reach space, takes place by the end of July 2024 (local time at the launch site). Otherwise NO.
Context: Musk says they're aiming for "late July"
A "launch" is defined as the vehicle lifting off the pad, however slightly, under thrust from its engines. (Exploding on the pad does not count.)
"Starship" is defined as any vehicle designs descended from the existing designs of Starship - i.e. if they make substantial changes or rename the vehicle, it still counts. But a vehicle based on e.g. the Falcon 9 would not count, even if SpaceX called it a Starship.
Only missions with a planned trajectory that reaches space (100km altitude) count.
This is a binary version of https://manifold.markets/jack/when-will-there-be-a-5th-starship-l (fixed resolve date so that it can potentially be a prize market)
Wondering the same, but checking X I don't see anything. Obviously, I may not be following the right people, but I don't think there was any news made public that should shift things.
As an aside, I'm pretty happy with how my limit order worked out. It liquidated my NO position with a hefty profit, and opened a small YES position with a great return if it pays out. Pretty much exactly where I want to be. I don't think it's likely that they'll make July, but a 1/10 chance seems about right. Buying YES at 1/20 odds is perfect for me.
I don't want to make a big bet for a low probability event, but a small one is fun.
/u/space_rocket_builder (a SpaceX employee with a good track record for these things) said on Reddit that a July launch is "highly unlikely", so that's good enough for me.
https://www.reddit.com/r/spacex/comments/1cta333/comment/l9mve5b/