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The market will resolve to YES as soon as SpaceX Starship rocket reaches spaces and completes at least one full orbit. The market will resolve positively even if there is some sort of mishap or loss of communication, as long as it completes the orbit mostly in one piece.
Until this happens, the answers will be resolved to NO as soon as the respective period is over without a successful flight.
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I will not bet on this market.
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I could kinda see them wanting to do it for IFT-5. They did prove raptor relight with the landing burn, after all.
Most rockets also aren't designed to survive re-entry though
@Berg I think this is a general understanding of "reach orbit". I don't want to make the title too verbose. It's easy enough to read a few lines of description to confirm the exact resolution criteria.
@OlegEterevsky not really. People generally agree that Yuri Gagarin has reached orbit, although he didn't complete a full revolution. Just replace the word "reach" with the word "complete".
The upcoming third flight probably won't attempt a full orbit (see https://manifold.markets/Mqrius/will-starship-ift3-try-for-full-orb and https://manifold.markets/chrisjbillington/will-starshipsuperheavy-ift3-have-a), and the forth flight probably won't happen until April (see https://manifold.markets/Kire_/when-will-there-be-a-4th-starship-l).