Defined as 100 human cases or more, as reported on https://www.cdc.gov/bird-flu/situation-summary/index.html
Possible human-human transmission happening in MO https://www.nytimes.com/2024/09/27/health/bird-flu-cluster-missouri.html
Longer time horizon here BTW https://manifold.markets/jgyou/will-there-be-a-largescale-bird-flu-810463cb11ad
1 human died— Just south of US, in Mexico, and h5n2 (strain in poultry) instead of h5n1 ( strain circulating in dairy cows in US). No known exposure, but underlying medical issues.
https://time.com/6986026/mexico-death-tied-to-bird-flu-strain-never-before-seen-in-people/
The Wikipedia page breaks down cases/deaths by country and year. Only one country/year is over 100 cases (Egypt-2015: 136 cases, 39 deaths). The next highest seems to be Vietnam-2005 (61 cases, 19 deaths). Indonesia-2006 (55 cases, 45 deaths) and Indonesia-2007 (42 cases, 37 deaths) should likely also be over 100, assuming that many cases were missed and the CFR should be closer to 30%.
But overall it seems much more likely to end up with a handful of cases (as the US has currently) than >100. So I'm confused why this is so high.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Global_spread_of_H5N1#Human_cases
@jgyou here’s a link to cdc regarding the case in michigan
This seems high, IMO.
The base rate is lower. The bird flu has been active in flocks nearly continuously for the past 20 years.
We have a human case of H5N1, but growth is stagnant in commercial flocks