Will there be a large-scale bird flu outbreak in the US in 2024? (100+ cases)
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Defined as 100 human cases or more, as reported on https://www.cdc.gov/bird-flu/situation-summary/index.html

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Possible human-human transmission happening in MO https://www.nytimes.com/2024/09/27/health/bird-flu-cluster-missouri.html

“11hrs ago” so far 9 US cases in humans

https://apple.news/AVJsnOGjrSVmc-d_ODtqZRQ

reposted

We're at 9 cases so far. Four months to go.

reposted

At five cases.

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Now a plus market.

1 human died— Just south of US, in Mexico, and h5n2 (strain in poultry) instead of h5n1 ( strain circulating in dairy cows in US). No known exposure, but underlying medical issues.

https://time.com/6986026/mexico-death-tied-to-bird-flu-strain-never-before-seen-in-people/

The Wikipedia page breaks down cases/deaths by country and year. Only one country/year is over 100 cases (Egypt-2015: 136 cases, 39 deaths). The next highest seems to be Vietnam-2005 (61 cases, 19 deaths). Indonesia-2006 (55 cases, 45 deaths) and Indonesia-2007 (42 cases, 37 deaths) should likely also be over 100, assuming that many cases were missed and the CFR should be closer to 30%.

But overall it seems much more likely to end up with a handful of cases (as the US has currently) than >100. So I'm confused why this is so high.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Global_spread_of_H5N1#Human_cases

This seems high, IMO.
The base rate is lower. The bird flu has been active in flocks nearly continuously for the past 20 years.
We have a human case of H5N1, but growth is stagnant in commercial flocks

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