At five cases.

Longer time horizon here BTW https://manifold.markets/jgyou/will-there-be-a-largescale-bird-flu-810463cb11ad

Now a plus market.

1 human died— Just south of US, in Mexico, and h5n2 (strain in poultry) instead of h5n1 ( strain circulating in dairy cows in US). No known exposure, but underlying medical issues.

https://time.com/6986026/mexico-death-tied-to-bird-flu-strain-never-before-seen-in-people/

The Wikipedia page breaks down cases/deaths by country and year. Only one country/year is over 100 cases (Egypt-2015: 136 cases, 39 deaths). The next highest seems to be Vietnam-2005 (61 cases, 19 deaths). Indonesia-2006 (55 cases, 45 deaths) and Indonesia-2007 (42 cases, 37 deaths) should likely also be over 100, assuming that many cases were missed and the CFR should be closer to 30%.

But overall it seems much more likely to end up with a handful of cases (as the US has currently) than >100. So I'm confused why this is so high.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Global_spread_of_H5N1#Human_cases

Up to two cases.

@jgyou here’s a link to cdc regarding the case in michigan

https://www.cdc.gov/media/releases/2024/s0522-human-case-h5.html#:~:text=CDC%20Newsroom%20Home-,CDC%20Reports%20Second%20Human%20Case%20of%20H5,Tied%20to%20Dairy%20Cow%20Outbreak&text=May%2022%2C%202024%20%E2%80%93%20A%20human,in%20the%20state%20of%20Michigan.

This seems high, IMO.
The base rate is lower. The bird flu has been active in flocks nearly continuously for the past 20 years.
We have a human case of H5N1, but growth is stagnant in commercial flocks