I think it's much more likely than the current 3% that it's Elon. But I don't expext " made available by EOY".

In that light, 3% seems fine to me

edit: delete

Fredi is president of France. Will intervene with the military if necessary for correct result peacekeeping, there is too much of the money on the line. It is what is happening when the politics is getting into the betting. Not so good for humanity, but good for getting slop top on the tinder.

Freddi9999 is @SteveSokolowski cashing in the NVDIA stock and moving on this his next great investment.

From someone who isn't familiar with polymarket values, is dollars here real dollar or something like Mana? How much hard cash is used in this account?

@TheWabiSabi it's real USD (technically, a cryptocurrency that's tied 1:1 with real USD). So, their currently-held positions are worth ~6.8 million USD.

@jim thank you, so if he wins he wins crypto which he or she could convert easily to real USD?

@TheWabiSabi yep!

@jim And does that mean that someone somewhere is holding the equivalent of all issued tokens in liquid USD reserve?

@Pjfkh No. I think they promise that plenty of USD is held liquid and much is held in low-risk investments.

But, obviously, one should not trust this to be true.

@jim Thanks! And indeed, we all remember Tether’s fraudulent claims. If there’s any duration mismatch or risk (without alternate credit agreements or lines) then it’s not actually fully backed.

@Pjfkh tether is another story. USDC is all cash equivalents, only short dated treasuries and the like. See https://www.circle.com/en/transparency

The Circle Reserve Fund is a SEC-registered government money market fund which holds a portfolio of short-dated US Treasuries, overnight US Treasury repurchase agreements, and cash. For more information visit Circle Reserve Fund.

Arguments for:

The recent tweets around Trump and Pennsylvania about Polymarket (from his personal stenographer "Doge Designer") seem to be timed with large purchases by Fredi. Musk rallied with Trump in Pennsylvania, and has connections to Pennsylvania from his college days.

The join date of the account was June 22nd, a few weeks before Elon officially endorsed Trump. BUT June 22nd roughly lines up to when I was told privately by someone in Republican circles that Elon was getting ready to endorse and donate a ton of money to get Trump elected.

Arguments against:

• There are many possible people who fit the criteria, lots of wealthy people in tech started reaching out to Trump around May-July 2024

• In October 2023, A user with the same username asked on a German forum about tax advice related to living on Mallorca, which is an activity that makes sense for a wealthy German crypto-enthusiast but not for Musk, and it would be a weird way to try to hide it

  • https://www.mallorca-forum.com/gewinnsteuer-nach-immobilienverkauf-t50548.html?sid=70e934e2cb661d2249e2d738a5193285

• The user's alt is named "princesscaro", which is probably a reference to Princess Caroline of Monaco. It's not impossible for Musk to be interested in her (he's been known to go to Monaco, her younger brother Prince Albert II drove a cyber truck in Monaco in June 2024), but it would still be a bit of a weird choice for Musk, and a better fit for someone like a German traditionalist.