The map is just not pretty at all for Reform. Despite almost definitely getting more than 10% of the vote, their entire chance of getting even one seat rests on Farage. It's plausible they win there, but it's not a guarantee in the slightest.

I have just bought this all the way down because I think it's a slam dunk for Farage. I think he resonates perfectly with Clacton constituents.

Farage has been attacked with a milkshake on his first day in Clacton. Not a serious injury, but clearly assault - resolves YES?

@Noit Agreed. He’s not loving it. Resolves YES in my view.

@Noit https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cw0097xlqxvo

Wondering about ‘party which has never won a seat before will win a seat’ - does Lee Anderson’s defection to Reform count as reform ‘winning’ a seat or does winning imply in an election? @lisamarsh

@Jack_Rose Good question! If Reform win a seat at the next election, I will resolve this YES because Lee Anderson wasn't elected. (If the Workers' Party wins a seat, that doesn't count because they won the Rochdale by-election.)

@lisamarsh Many thanks… I now know one benefit of us being fucked by reform is that I can make some magic internet money off it

@Jack_Rose reform splitting the Tory vote is great, isn't it?

@BrunoParga In seats tories otherwise would have won, I’m more worried about big nige actually winning a seat

@Jack_Rose doesn't the benefit of Labour (or the Lib Dems, or Green) winning seats that would otherwise go to the Tories outweigh the disadvantage of that huge c*nt winning a seat?

@BrunoParga No it does - i think reform is overall paradoxically a good thing. I’m just annoyed that we can’t have the benefits of the Tory voter exodus while also not having the nigeinator having a seat

Can this one resolve NO? Or does it need to wait for candidate lists to be finalised?

@Noit I’ll wait for the final list; I suppose he could always change his mind.

@lisamarsh I would make a market on this!

@lisamarsh can you please edit this to say "Gallagher index of disproportionality ≥ 15.00“?

resign as leader or resign as MP?

@stationtostation As leader

For the SNP, is this Yousaf or Flynn?

@Fion Yousaf

Also known as the "LOL 🙃 what even is democracy" index

😮 has this ever happened?

@BrunoParga Thurrock in 2015 and Lanark and Hamilton East in 2017!

@lisamarsh that is thrilling!

I'll add it to my list of examples that thrilling is bad in politics 😂 I'm very against FPTP and pro-PR, and PR countries usually are boring, predictable and more stable.

(Then there was a time in a German state election where one vote made the difference for their Lib Dems to reach the threshold and have any representatives at all)