Will one of the next 10 popes be black?

1kṀ1347

2100

74%

chance

ALL

Resolves Yes, if at least one of the next 10 official popes is black according to https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Black_people.

Resolves N/A, if there is significant disagreement about the blackness of a pope or who the pope is, less than 10 popes will exist, etc.

Catholicism

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Related market you guys might like:

https://manifold.markets/Lexer/will-one-of-the-next-10-blacks-be-p?play=true

Upon the throne of Peter, a shadow shall fall,
The Black Pope shall rise, at the darkness' call.
Cloaked in midnight's fabric, wielding power unseen,
His reign ushers chaos, where peace once had been.

The Catholic church claims Simon Peter as the first pope, starting at 33 CE, and they list 266 title holders in those 1,991 years. So the average length of a papacy is just under 7.5 years. There have been only twelve since Pius IX in 1846, for an average of 14.8 years. After Francis there might be only like 6 popes, even 5, before 2100.

I suggest you move the close date well past 2100 - at the very least to 2200. Otherwise, this is as much a market on "will there be unusually short papacies for the rest of the century" as on whether any of the next 10 will be Black.

I agree that if the papacy ceases to exist this should N/A, I'm saying it'd be a bummer if it still exists normally but we're still like 6 popes from Francis.