Government coalition following the 2024 Thuringian state election? | Manifold

Government coalition following the 2024 Thuringian state election?

Basic

16

Ṁ4778

Nov 21

57%

CDU+BSW+SPD

27%

Other

7%

CDU+Left+BSW

2%

AfD+CDU

1.5%

CDU+SPD

1.1%

Left+CDU+SPD

Resolves to the coalition of the next government following the 2024 Thuringian state election on September 1.

Close date might be adapted.

The order and vote numbers are not relevant for this question. For example, AfD+CDU is the same as CDU+AfD.

Related: /marktwse/which-party-will-be-in-the-governme

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I mirrored the question to Metaculus.

Potential coalitions from here.

bought Ṁ1 AfD+CDU YES

More suggestions for coalitions?

@marktwse Maybe CDU+SPD or CDU+SPD+Greens, as a minority government tolerated by the Left and maybe BSW?

bought Ṁ30 CDU+Left+BSW NO

@marktwse CDU + SPD + BSW + Greens seems not too unlikely, given that it just adds BSW to the previous coalition. It would be a minority government, but all likely options are minority

@stephanw Sorry, got the tab confused, ignore what I said, Greens aren't even in parliament.

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