AI safety community successfully advocates for a global AI development slowdown by December 2027
6
300Ṁ342
2027
22%
chance

This market resolves to YES if, by December 31, 2027, the AI safety community successfully advocates for and achieves a significant global slowdown in frontier AI development.

A "significant global slowdown" requires at least two of the following:

  1. A formal international agreement signed by at least 3 of the top 5 AI-producing countries to limit or pause certain types of AI development

  2. Major AI labs (at least 3 of the top 5) publicly committing to and implementing significant voluntary slowdowns

  3. Implementation of substantial regulatory barriers to rapid AI development in at least 3 major AI-producing countries

The slowdown must be explicitly connected to AI safety concerns and must represent a material change from the previous development pace.

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