🍾What will happen in January 2025? [ADD RESPONSES]
Basic
66
Ṁ5974
Feb 2
98.8%
Eliezer Yudkowsky is alive for the entire month
98.6%
Eliezer Yudkowsky remains unwavering that the probability of AI annihilation is greater than or equal to 95%
96%
Ayatollah Khamenei will be alive the whole month
89%
usa politician pulicized visit to japan
85%
The total 7.8 km length of the Rideau Canal Skateway, the world's largest skating rink, will be open for at least 3 days.
85%
web3isgoinggreat makes at least 20 posts this month
27%
A YouTube video specifically about someone called Janette/Janet/Jane, rye bread, or the exclamation "REEE" is uploaded and gets >1M views
27%
another Texas power grid failure
20%
Dec (from Ant & Dec) mentions decimals, decibels, tough decisions, despots, Despicable Me, or Despacito on social media
20%
The DJIA, S&P 500, and NASDAQ all hit new all-time highs.
19%
Ted Cruz vacations in Mexico
18%
NASDAQ hits an all time high
15%
MIT President resigns
14%
grok 3 release
14%
another right wing media persona is revealed to have taken russia money
13%
SpaceX launches >11 rockets
13%
iger Woods birdies a hole in PGA event
12%
For the first time, weak AGI is declared to have been achieved by a majority of Manifold respondents in the monthly poll
11%
Weak AGI exists, as defined by the Metaculus market on the topic having resolved YES before the end of the month
10%
>= 20% of Manifold respondents believe that weak superintelligence has been achieved in the monthly poll

I reserve the right to NA any answer for any reason, to combat duplicates or abuse.

  • Update 2025-16-01 (PST): - Celebrity/Public Figure must be recognized by mainstream press to be considered as such. (AI summary of creator comment)

Get
Ṁ1,000
and
S3.00
Sort by:
bought Ṁ10 YES

@strutheo The ceasefire option should resolve, right?

@Denial if they arent recognized in mainstream press we dont consider them a celebrity usually

@strutheo there’s lots of reports for Alejandra Darin (for example) in the main press, just not in the US. Tommy Brown is reported in the NYT. Might not be strictly “celebrities” but they are public figures. If it doesn’t count then it’s poorly worded!

bought Ṁ100 YES

@strutheo David Lynch must count then, right?

sold Ṁ1 NO

@aleven yeah, definitely needs to resolve to YES. (Edit: Nvm it already did lol)

@Denial, @strutheo was quick!

@strutheo why N/A? Harris received electoral votes this time and she is clearly "someone other than Joe Biden or Donald Trump".

@VonGadke Yeah, I had a brain fart and bet the wrong way on this, but I think it should probably count.

i think it confused multiple ppl and only a few bet so i just naed

bought Ṁ10 NO

We've had 3 posts to web3isgoinggreat this month, with the first on the 7th. Over the past year (I counted manually but I'm pretty sure this is approximately correct):

December 2024: 12, first on the 1st

November 2024: 9, first on the 3rd

October 2024: 11, first on the 4th

September 2024: 28, first on the 3rd

August 2024: 21, first on the 1st

July 2024: 19, first on the 1st

June 2024: 23, first on the 2nd

May 2024: 18, first on the 3rd

April 2024: 27 first on the 1st

March 2024: 32, first on the 1st

February 2024: 30, first on the 1st

January 2024: 36, first on the 2nd

Considering the decrease in post frequency over the past three months and the delay to first post, I think it's going to be a slow month.

bought Ṁ10 NO

I better get a huge payout considering nobody on the PGA tour goes by the name "iger Woods"

bought Ṁ5 YES

@MugaSofer I'm sure this one will be easy for you haha

bought Ṁ15 NO

[Breaking] Investigative body moves in to arrest Yoon Suk Yeol

Some 50 officials of the Corruption Investigation Office for High-ranking Officials and police combined entered President Yoon Suk Yeol's official residence at around 8:03 a.m. Friday to arrest him on suspicion of insurrection.

© Manifold Markets, Inc.Terms + Mana-only TermsPrivacyRules