How will Bitcoin’s value ($) change within a week of the 2024 US presidential election?
➕
Plus
4
Ṁ2028
Nov 12
86%
🐘📈Trump wins, BTC increases in value
8%
🐘📉Trump wins, BTC falls in value
3%
🫏📈Harris wins, BTC increases in value
3%
🫏📉Harris wins, BTC falls in value

Resolves based on two binary conditions:

  1. The winner of the 2024 presidential election as projected by the Associated Press*

  2. The difference in the value of Bitcoin, in US Dollars, from the beginning of election day to one week later (12:00 AM EST Nov. 5–12:00 AM EST Nov. 12), according to the spot price on Binance

*Condition 1 need not be resolved before Condition 2, e.g. if a winner isn’t declared for a month, the time period Nov 5-12 will still be used

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https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/p-hacking/

What would an Election Unaware model that just samples from the distribution of weekly returns (%) for the last year say?

This can't be right. Right?

Consider an Election Unaware model:

Like - if you ignore the election and just assume the weekly return is sampled from the weekly return distribution for the past year, then btc is more likely to go up than down?

And you can quantify the relative likelihood of up versus down?

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