By 2027 will Adam be replaced by a novel optimization algorithm?
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28
Ṁ20102027
64%
chance
1D
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1M
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I am including both Adam and close variants (e.g. AdamW).
To judge it I will look at the top 20 most cited ML papers released that year. If >= 50% of them use a novel optimization algorithm, market resolves YES.
If Adam is replaced by an existing optimization algorithm, or it remains the most common optimization algorithm, market resolves NO.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
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Here's one candidate: a meta-optimiser that just won a best paper award at NeurIPS "Gradient Descent: The Ultimate Optimizer" https://openreview.net/forum?id=-Qp-3L-5ZdI
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