Will the National Popular Vote Interstate Compact reach the threshold for activation by the 2028 election? [Res. PROB]
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Plus
18
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2028
24%
chance
The National Popular Vote Interstate Compact (NPVIC) is an agreement among a group of U.S. states and the District of Columbia to award all their electoral votes to whichever presidential candidate wins the overall popular vote in the 50 states and the District of Columbia. The compact is designed to ensure that the candidate who receives the most votes nationwide is elected president, and it would come into effect only when it would guarantee that outcome. As of June 2022, it has been adopted by fifteen states and the District of Columbia. These states have 195 electoral votes, which is 36% of the Electoral College and 72% of the 270 votes needed to give the compact legal force. (Per https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/National_Popular_Vote_Interstate_Compact ) On election day 2028, if the NPVIC controls enough votes to reach the threshold for activation (currently 270), this market resolves YES. Otherwise, this market resolves to: (the number of votes controlled at resolution time minus the number of votes at market open (195)) divided by (the number of votes required to activate the compact minus the number of votes at market open (195)). This effectively calculates the progress made towards activation, such that moderate progress is still calculated and rewarded. See the 2024 version of this question here: https://manifold.markets/wasabipesto/will-the-national-popular-vote-inte
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How to go about answering the most interesting part of this question: what would it take for the NPVIC to actually reach majority?

Currently, Republican states don't have the incentive because they benefit from the Electoral College. If this changes (unlikely?), it tests the commitment of the Blue states.

That leaves the swing states. They benefit a lot from being swing states: it gets them all kinds of favors from presidential candidates. In addition, the NPVIC might be hard to pass in split legislatures.

So the swing states have to become Blue states, which would mean decisive victory of Democrats over Republicans, which seems unlikely - maybe it might happen if the Republican party implodes? But in that case, the NPVIC is irrelevant.

And when it becomes relevant again, there's strong incentives in swing states to change the rules again, I suppose?

Incentive
I don't think it is very likely, but 20% feels low to me, given the current political climate
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