Will a Hezbollah missile kill someone in Tel Aviv in 2024?
Basic
12
แน535Jan 1
17%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
On 25 September 2024 Hezbollah launched a missile at Tel Aviv that was intercepted by Israeli air defense and resulted in no casualties. This market is intended to work as a proxy for whether Hezbollah will succeed in any further missile attacks on Tel Aviv.
Resolves YES if credible sources report that a missile fired by Hezbollah before 1 January 2025 Tel Aviv time killed someone in Tel Aviv. Otherwise resolves NO.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000and
3.00
1,0003.00Sort by:
Related questions
Related questions
How many people will be killed as a result of the Israel-Hezbollah conflict in 2024?
Will Israel launch air strikes within Tehran city limits by the end of 2024?
76% chance
Will Naim Qassem (deputy secretary-general of Hezbollah) will killed by Israel in 2024
34% chance
Will more than 5000 people die in a conflict between Israel and Hezbollah/Lebanon during 2024?
80% chance
Will there be a ceasefire agreement between Israel and Hezbollah by the end of 2024?
22% chance
Will the Lebanese military strike Hezbollah before EOY 2024?
23% chance
Will Israel and Hezbollah have a major war before January 1st, 2030?
59% chance
Conditional on a war between Israel and Hezbollah/Lebanon, how many will die on the Hezbollah/Lebanese side before 2025?
Will an Israeli fighter jet get shot down over another country in 2024?
13% chance
Will Hezbollah attack northern Israel before Sept. 2024, similarly to how Hamas attacked southern Israel on October 7?
9% chance