How many people will be killed as a result of the Israel-Hezbollah conflict in 2024?
➕
Plus
14
Ṁ9712
Jan 2
3%
<100
8%
100-1000
30%
1000-5000
30%
5000-20000
15%
20000-50000
9%
50000-100000
6%
100000+

Measurement will start from the Sept. 17th pager attacks and include any subsequent casualties between Israel and Hezbollah/Lebanon. Both Israeli and Lebanese/Hezbollah deaths will count, both combatant and civilian deaths will count.

Measurement for these questions can be hard, but I will follow expert consensus as reflected by mainstream journalism, reports from international institutions, etc.

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Ṁ1,000
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So the lowest answer is already resolved “no”?

@Pjfkh And after Monday 23rd the total is over 1000? So no on the first two?

so it does or doesn't include deaths directly caused by pager attacks?

@jacksonpolack It does include deaths caused by those attacks - I'm counting those as the starting point.

There have been scattered casualties earlier this year, but that moment marks a clear break, an escalation in the nature of the conflict.