How many people will be killed as a result of the Israel-Hezbollah conflict in 2024?
๐Ÿ’Ž
Premium
29
แน€19k
Jan 2
2%
<100
4%
100-1000
34%
1000-5000
33%
5000-20000
13%
20000-50000
8%
50000-100000
6%
100000+

Measurement will start from the Sept. 17th pager attacks and include any subsequent casualties between Israel and Hezbollah/Lebanon. Both Israeli and Lebanese/Hezbollah deaths will count, both combatant and civilian deaths will count.

Measurement for these questions can be hard, but I will follow expert consensus as reflected by mainstream journalism, reports from international institutions, etc.

Get
แน€1,000
and
S3.00
Sort by:

While Lebanon is claiming well over 1000 civilians that would count here, Israel has claimed over 100 Hezbollah fighters killed since the pager attacks. So currently there seems to be no one who is claiming <100 people have lost their lives.

It would be very useful if people can link casualty estimates from credible mainstream sources here, if and when you encounter them.

@JeremiahJohnson Wikipedia currently lists casualties from September forward as "over 800 people" https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/September_2024_Lebanon_strikes

So the lowest answer is already resolved โ€œnoโ€?

@Pjfkh And after Monday 23rd the total is over 1000? So no on the first two?

@Pjfkh I'm not seeing a source for over 1000 yet - can you link what you see?

@Pjfkh All the above have direct or indirect causality numbers citing Lebanese officials which are over 1000 in the last two weeks

so it does or doesn't include deaths directly caused by pager attacks?

@jacksonpolack It does include deaths caused by those attacks - I'm counting those as the starting point.

There have been scattered casualties earlier this year, but that moment marks a clear break, an escalation in the nature of the conflict.

ยฉ Manifold Markets, Inc.โ€ขTerms + Mana-only Termsโ€ขPrivacyโ€ขRules