Israel-Hezbollah conflict killing >400 before 2024? And US and Iran at war before 2025?
IsraelIsrael-Hamas ConflictArab-Israeli ConflictJoint Markets
Basic
38
Ṁ13k
2025
0.1%
Yes Israel-Hezbollah conflict >400 deaths, Yes US-Iran war
0.7%
Yes Israel-Hezbollah conflict >400 deaths, No US-Iran war
10%
No Israel-Hezbollah conflict >400 deaths, Yes US-Iran war
89%
No Israel-Hezbollah conflict >400 deaths, No US-Iran war

This is a two-part question. It resolves according to the resolutions of:

This is intended to predict potential paths to a broader war.

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bought Ṁ50 Yes Israel-Hezbollah... YES

How is the prospect of an Israel Hezbollah war this low, the market on the probability of a direct war is at 72% right now

sold Ṁ49 Yes Israel-Hezbollah... YES

Oh I misread it, that conflict has to have already happened

Correct. Half the options are now impossible

@jack is the market supposed to say before 2025 for both conflicts?

No. One is 2024 and one 2025.

This was part of a series of markets about how one short term possible event (Hezbollah-israel conflict) could affect one longer term possible event (us-iran war)

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