Background
The 2028 Democratic presidential nomination race is beginning to take shape, with several prominent figures emerging as potential candidates.
Resolution Criteria
For each candidate listed, the market will resolve YES if they:
Officially announce their candidacy for the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination, OR
File paperwork with the Federal Election Commission (FEC) to run for president as a Democrat in 2028, OR
Takes part in an official Democratic presidential debate, OR
Appear on any state's Democratic presidential primary ballot in 2028
The market will resolve NO for candidates who:
Explicitly rule out running in the 2028 election during 2028
Do not take any of the above actions
Run as an independent or for another party's nomination
The resolution will be after Super Tuesday.
On Adding Answers:
I reserve the right to N/A any answer that is not in keeping with the spirit of this market
If an answer is added after that answer has already satisfied the criteria to resolve, that answer will resolve N/A
Should there be a dispute, the rules provided will control over the answer to the question itself. While, the question is intended to provide an easy way for people to bet on their beliefs, it is not the end all be all, and all traders should look at the rules. The unlikely event of significant ambiguity regarding whether the resolution criteria have been met. I reserve the right to resolve a question to a percentage that I deem fair. I will give notice before I do this.
Should someone hold themselves out as a candidate for president but involves a scheme to allow the person who holds himself out as a candidate to be chosen as vice president as part of a scheme to serve more than two terms as President[1], that person will count as running for the nomination as long as they hold themselves out as the candidate to serve as president.
[1] Bruce G. Peabody and Scott E. Gant, “The Twice and Future President: Constitutional Interstices and the Twenty-Second Amendment,” Minnesota Law Review 83, no. 3 (1998–1999): 565–636, https://heinonline.org/HOL/P?h=hein.journals/mnlr83&i=577; “How to Serve Three Terms as President (LegalEagle’s Real Law Review),” March 13, 2020, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TWihXElw_zg
1,000
3.00@traders New to the rules is: Should someone run for president clearly as part of a scheme to allow the person who they chose as vice president to serve more than two terms as President[1], that person will count as running for the nomination as long as it is clear that they intend to assume the office of the presidency.
[1] Bruce G. Peabody and Scott E. Gant, “The Twice and Future President: Constitutional Interstices and the Twenty-Second Amendment,” Minnesota Law Review 83, no. 3 (1998–1999): 565–636, https://heinonline.org/HOL/P?h=hein.journals/mnlr83&i=577; “How to Serve Three Terms as President (LegalEagle’s Real Law Review),” March 13, 2020, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TWihXElw_zg
@AaronSimansky Let me see if I can get my head around this. So we are talking about a scenario where, say, Michelle Obama announces that she is running for president, and makes the clear, explicit, public promise that if nominated she will choose Barack Obama as her running mate, and if elected that her one and only act as president will be to resign, giving Barack a third term. And in that kind of scenario, you will count Michelle, not Barack, as running for the Democratic nomination? That seems like a reasonable way to handle that scenario, I just want to make sure I am understanding correctly.
[Deleted]
@traders Please note an update to the rules: the rule that people who explicitly rule out running will resolve to "No" has been changed to so that to resolve to no the candidate must "Explicitly rule out running for election in 2028 during 2028". This is on account of candidates changing their minds (e.g. Deval Patrick). I felt that ruling out running during 2028 was an appropriate time to consider a declination to run to be conclusive. Please reply to this comment if you have any questions or would like to dispute this.