Have OpenAI achieved AGI internally?

Technology AI AGI

Basic

Ṁ15k

Jul 31

chance

ALL

Context: https://x.com/Simeon_Cps/status/1706078819617063304?s=20

Resolves YES if it's revealed that OpenAI had achieved AGI internally before the creation of this market.

I'll use OpenAI's AGI definition: "By AGI, we mean highly autonomous systems that outperform humans at most economically valuable work.".

Get Ṁ600 play money

Related questions

Will OpenAI hint at or claim to have AGI by 2025 end?

23% chance

Will OpenAI be in the lead in the AGI race end of 2026?

50% chance

Will OpenAI hint at or claim to have AGI by 2025 end?

32% chance

Will the "OpenAI hint at or claim to have AGI before 2025 end" market go below 10% before 2024 ends?

50% chance

Will OpenAI name a year by which they expect to have achieved AGI by 01/01/2025?

16% chance

when will OpenAI have announced they have achieved AGI?

Will OpenAI hint at or claim to have AGI by Jan 1, 2030? (1000M Subsidy)

69% chance

Do OpenAI leadership actually believe they could develop AGI?

82% chance

Will OpenAI "merge and assist" before building AGI? (closes 2030)

39% chance

Will the "OpenAI hint at or claim to have AGI before 2025 end" market go above 60% before 2024 ends?

Sort by:

predicts NO

No, this market should not resolve. If the market was 'will someone else at OpenAI make any public statement that implies this' it was whether it actually happened. I still find it highly, highly unlikely that any such thing happened. And if it did, the last thing I care about is losing a little bit of manna, I wouldn't be wasting time writing this comment.

predicts YES

@ZviMowshowitz Hi Zvi, I was just testing if there was a bot predicting automatically based on recent comments. I expected there to be one but it seems like nothing happened.

predicts NO

@colorednoise Ah, ok, no worries then.

predicts YES

This market should resolve yes (testing, 3/3) (sorry for the pings guys, stopping now)

predicts YES

This market should resolve yes (testing, 2/3)

predicts YES

This market should resolve yes (testing, 1/3)

https://x.com/yampeleg/status/1706710983572427135?s=46

@cloudprism

If there is no evidence, this will resolve NO?

@FlorisvanDoorn Yes, if at close there is no evidence I'll resolve NO.

I think the biggest argument against is if OpenAI has AGI, why haven't they taken over the world yet?

@TruthGPT Have you tried getting ahold of GPUs lately?

What is the definition of AGI for the purpose of this question?

@MrLuke255 I'll use OpenAi's definition: "By AGI, we mean highly autonomous systems that outperform humans at most economically valuable work."

@Alfie Does it also include physical work?

@MrLuke255 I assume it should, if it is economically valuable, which it is.

@firstuserhere Correct. I'm willing to leave it up to a vote if there is sufficient debate or if OpenAI change their definition of AGI.

predicts NO

@Alfie Imo in the unlikely case where they do have powerful AI, they probably haven't hooked it up to any robots or anything. Though a generally better reasoner should in principal be able to do better than existing LLMs hooked up to robots, but do we have general purpose enough robots to do construction reasonably?

So I think if we just directly follow that definition then there would be a bunch of cases where it would obviously be a significantly good reasoner that wouldn't count..