Conditional on Trump/Biden NOT winning, who will win the 2024 US Presidential Election? (DERIVATIVE MARKET, READ DESC)
Mini
23
Ṁ2.9kNov 5
1D
1W
1M
ALL
29%
Kamala Harris
22%
Gavin Newsom
8%
Nikki Haley
6%
Gretchen Whitmer (D, Michigan Governor)
5%
Michelle Obama
5%
4%
Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
2%
Vivek Ramaswamy
2%
Hillary Clinton
2%
Ron DeSantis
2%
Tim Scott (R-SC Senator)
1.8%
Dean Phillips
1.8%
Asa Hutchinson
1.8%
Tucker Carlson
1.7%
Elise Stefanik (R-NY Representative)
1.7%
Kristi Noem (R, SD Governor)
1.5%
Mike Pence
1.3%
Ted Cruz
1.2%
Chris Christie
This market will resolve at a random time in November before election day. At resolution, this market resolves according to the implied odds given by the main US Elections market conditioned on neither Biden nor Trump winning:
For a simplified example, if the above market has the following probabilities when this market closes:
Joe Biden - 49%
Donald Trump - 47%
Kamala Harris - 3%
Robert F Kennedy Jr. - 1%
Then this market will resolve as following:
Kamala Harris - 75%
Robert F Kennedy Jr. - 25%
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