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According to the data collected by Alma institute, there was escalation in the month of May.

More then 5 (all the columns are above the 5 line mark in the graphs) attacks each day between the 15th to the 31st, resulting in more then 14 days straight.

A reminder, these are the number of attacks, in each attack there is usually more then one rocket, so it is matching the criteria of at least 5 rockets per day.

How literally are you taking the conditions? If there's 6+ verified rockets per day for 13 out of 14 days would you consider that not enough? Tensions seem to be escalating significantly so want to understand how much discretion you will use in resolving this.

The resolution criteria is clear, if it is just 13 days and not 14 it will count as NO

Despite the evident escalation. Pay attention that in the criteria I refer to the number of rockets, not number of attacks. Usually in an attack there is more than one rocket.

I didn’t think of it when I opened the market, but I should have done also a a ratio from the entire month, something like “60 % of the days in one month we’re with more that 5 attacks”

Thank you for clarifying. Based on that technicality this definitely won't happen in the given timeframe. I think the definition is overly narrow, but I appreciate the clarity!

I’m surprised this is the conclusion you arrived too…. But I don’t feel comfortable to answer since I created the market.

Anyway, I will only look at the data close to resolution date to maintain as much objectivity as possible.

Do you have a source you'll be using to verify? How will you be verifying how many rockets were fired on every given day?

The source that was posted by Carmel Hadar on this thread is the most reliable I could find.

Neither [6+ verified rockets per day for 14 days in a row] nor [IDF land incursion on a larger scale than special forces] have happened, and there are less than four weeks left.

https://israel-alma.org/2024/04/07/six-months-into-the-war-in-the-northern-arena-a-summary-of-key-insights-and-trends/

@CarmelHadar i just always buy NO on these questions; hasn't failed so far

@AlQuinn

Even after they should have been resolved?

@CarmelHadar why? Looking at the bar charts in your link suggests it is a stable, low level conflict

@AlQuinn

So we are not looking on the same chart. When the question came, there was no 5 rockets per day, but in the end of may, there was. That meets the resolution criteria.

@CarmelHadar Sorry, I got this one mixed up with another market. I thought this was a purely vibe market but now I see it does have the rocket thing as a trigger. Still, I can't see in the (very long) post you linked where a daily rocket count is indicated for this to resolve YES.