Democrats are defending 23 seats, so they face an uphill battle.
In the case of a 50-50 split, this will be resolved according to whether the VP is Republican. Just so this is clear, the tie breaker is the presidential election.
https://elections2024.thehill.com/forecast/2024/senate/ froze their predictions after Biden announced he would not run again. I put a very high probability that Harris’ entry into the race will positively impact many Democratic Senate races; so the current prediction from The Hill, 78%, will drop.
https://www.nbcnews.com/news/amp/rcna144822
If she leaves the party to become independent it hurts R senate odds.
@NoMoreGiants You want them to but that’s a different question. Why are you confident they’ll lose all?
@BennyBoy Yup... The GOP lost last night in Madison, Alabama. They lost a deep red city council seat in a 33 point swing due to DOBBS.
It amuses me the arrogance of the right and the pretend libertarian tech bros. Read some history, learn about the politics, stop thinking the Internet is reality. It's not. It's a comms tool.
@SemioticRivalry well, I don't live in the US 😝
I currently have a small bet at Biden nomination at 1.3x. Considering adding to that (and to Kamala at 15x too)
But the banger right now is buying Milei