The data we have so far puts them at 4.9%. Unless I'm misunderstanding something, that's far too close to say there's only a 1% chance they cross the 5% threshold.

@ZaneMiller ah, wait, there are other estimates at 4.5% and 4.7%

@ZaneMiller still, 1% seems low

@ZaneMiller the projections are at 4.4% and 4.5% now (ARD and ZDF), seems very much impossible at this point.

@BenWilop How will you resolve if there's an earlier election?

@lxgr I will resolve it by the result of the next election. If it gets moved earlier or later, we will use the results of the first federal election starting from now. The date does not influence the result of the market.