BET ON THIS MARKET AND GET Ṁ2 MANA!*

When this market closes, one of rock, paper, or scissors will be chosen with probabilities proportional to the probabilities of the respective options.
NOTE: THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY ACTION DOES NOT NECESSARILY GET TAKEN!

Corresponding Market: https://manifold.markets/CharlesLien/crowdsourced-mdp-policies-rps-1-pla

Market Rules

After both this and the corresponding market close, the appropriate action will be simulated for both players, and if the game requires more actions, a new market will be created with the same prompt. (In the case of RPS, a tie results in more actions required to be taken.)

At the end of the full RPS game:

• If Player 2 loses, all "Player 2" markets will be resolved to "Lose"

• If Player 2 wins, all "Player 2" markets will be resolved to their respective played actions.

I will not bet on this market.

Market Close Time

This market will close once there are 70 combined unique traders on both this and the corresponding market. (Plus the time it takes me to realize that the threshold has been reached, plus approximately 24 hours for users to bet freely.)

A user betting on both this and the corresponding market counts as 2 unique traders.

Additionally, I will post a comment approximately 24 hours before close.

What are the best bets to take on this market?

This is an experiment to see if this type of thing will actually work. I have no idea what the correct actions are for this market. Bet whatever you want, and have fun!

*To claim the Ṁ2, add a comment here: https://manifold.markets/CharlesLien/free-m2-for-betting-on-any-of-my-ma

Edit 7/20/2023: Added the 2 mana incentive and increased the threshold to market close.