Will the AfD be the party with the most votes in eastern Germany in the next federal election? | Manifold

Will the AfD be the party with the most votes in eastern Germany in the next federal election?

Plus

22

Ṁ1566

2025

69%

chance

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1M

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This question will be determined by the secondary vote results in Berlin, Brandenburg, Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania, Saxony, Saxony-Anhalt, and Thuringia. 2021 the SPD was the party with the most votes in eastern Germany:

SPD 296.446

AfD 303.233

Saxony-Anhalt

SPD 305.085

AfD 235.492

Saxony

SPD 474.804

AfD 607.044

Berlin

SPD 428.289

AfD 153.694

Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania

SPD 267.368

AfD 165.342

Brandenburg

SPD 450.573

AfD 277.412

Adds up to:

SPD 2.222.565

AfD 1.742.217

Resolves to "No", if another party has more secondary votes than the AfD.

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Related for anyone interested: https://manifold.markets/TimonSchneider/will-the-farright-german-party-alte?r=VGltb25TY2huZWlkZXI

Will the far-right german party, Alternative für Deutschland (AfD), get the most seats in german parliament (2025)?

50% chance. Resolves YES if the AfD party gets the most seats compared to any party after the election. Resolves NO if there is any other party that has more seats than the AfD.

Those results will be weighted equally, i assume? So, not adjusted for size of the respective electorate?

predicts YES

@Schwabilismus I have edited the description to make it more understandable.

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