I will go based on Lichtman’s interpretation of the Keys. (If he does not provide one, I will do my best to interpret the Keys.)
However, I will adjudicate afterward whether he was correct (since he has moved goalposts in 2000 + 2016).
Lichtman claims that the Keys have predicted every presidential election since 1984. Many, such as myself, are skeptical. Newsletter forthcoming :)
General policy for my markets: In the rare event of a conflict between my resolution criteria and the agreed-upon common-sense spirit of the market, I may resolve it according to the market's spirit or N/A, probably after discussion.
1,000
3.00@bagelfan I genuinely mean it. I'll continue to live by the statement I have in my bio. I'm on this site to reach truth and eat my words when I am off target.
I hope I have fulfilled your expectations for this conversation.
@Quroe Oh, ok! I'm just surprised that you changed your mind that quickly.
It's good that you're open minded. That's one of the traits of a good predictor: be a fox, not a hedgehog