Will Allan Lichtman (creator of the 13 Keys) correctly predict the 2028 election?

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Ṁ7153

2028

59%

chance

ALL

I will go based on Lichtman’s interpretation of the Keys. (If he does not provide one, I will do my best to interpret the Keys.)

However, I will adjudicate afterward whether he was correct (since he has moved goalposts in 2000 + 2016).

Lichtman claims that the Keys have predicted every presidential election since 1984. Many, such as myself, are skeptical. Newsletter forthcoming :)

General policy for my markets: In the rare event of a conflict between my resolution criteria and the agreed-upon common-sense spirit of the market, I may resolve it according to the market's spirit or N/A, probably after discussion.

This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.

#🇺🇸 2024 US Presidential Election

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1,000

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3.00

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opened a Ṁ1,000 YES at 80% order

I'll put some extra confidence on this, but I'm prepared to see this market get arbitraged in 4 years.

@Quroe Why are you so confident?

@bagelfan Because of the information set I had at the time. Congrats! We live in the future now.

@Quroe 80% confidence on American POTUS is quite high no matter what

@bagelfan Cool! I appreciate your feedback, and I will calibrate my worldview accordingly.

@Quroe I can't really tell if this is sarcastic or not

@bagelfan I genuinely mean it. I'll continue to live by the statement I have in my bio. I'm on this site to reach truth and eat my words when I am off target.

I hope I have fulfilled your expectations for this conversation.

@Quroe Oh, ok! I'm just surprised that you changed your mind that quickly.

It's good that you're open minded. That's one of the traits of a good predictor: be a fox, not a hedgehog

@bagelfan This market ain't the hill I want to die on. 😉

bought Ṁ50 YES

The system is nonsense, but it would have to be really, crazily bad to anticorrelate with the true results. So, >50% it is.

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