What will be Joe Biden's chances of winning the election on election day? | Manifold

What will be Joe Biden's chances of winning the election on election day?

US Politics 2024 US Presidential Election Joe Biden Derivative Markets

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24

Ṁ891

Nov 4

31

expected

1D

1W

1M

ALL

This market closes right before the first polls open on election day.

Resolves to the value of this market at 5am EST as the polls in Vermont are scheduled to open then.

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Pretty big arbitrage with the underlying market

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