Will an Effective Altruist run for a US Congress seat in the 2024 elections?
Basic
23
Ṁ1.0kDec 31
40%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Based on whether they self-identify as an Effective Altruist and register as a candidate.
Get Ṁ600 play money
Related questions
Sort by:
@traders Does anyone have any information to share on this? I was planning to move up the resolution date until after the DNC (August 23rd) since all primaries should be completed by then.
More related questions
Related questions
Will there be an Effective Altruist member of the US Congress by January 2025?
17% chance
Will an Effective Altruist be the Republican Party nominee for a US Congress seat in the 2024 elections?
8% chance
Will a U.S. House Representative, Senator, or President/Vice President self identify as an effective altruist by the end of 2030?
40% chance
Will an Effective Altruist be the Democratic Party nominee for a US Congress seat in the 2024 elections?
6% chance
Will effective altruism splinter in 2024?
20% chance
Will effective altruism be "winning" over effective accelerationism at the end of 2024?
51% chance
Will the effective altruism movement be more popular at close (2027) than as of market creation (2022)?
62% chance
Will there be an Effective Altruist member of the UK Parliament by January 2025?
20% chance
Will the Effective Altruism movement continue to exist in 2035?
80% chance
Will a political party aligned with the Effective Altruism movement hold 1+ seats in any nation's parliament by 2030?
20% chance