Will Russia completely annex Ukraine by end of 2024?
➕
Plus
33
Ṁ4355
Jan 2
1%
chance

More likely to resolve YES if:

Russian officals control the borders into and out of ukraine

The ukrainian government no longer exists

The ukrainian government exists only in exile

Wikipedia articles about the war say that it is over and say that russias victory was decisive

More likely to resolves NO if:

The situation is largely similar to today or more favorable for ukraine

The government of Ukraine still controls some territory inside ukraine

some group other than the government of Russia controls more than 20% of the land area of ukraine

sorry if this is a repeat but I don't think question exists in this exact form :)

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predicts YES

same market with longer close date:

How will you resolve if the current Ukraine government is kicked out (exile) and a new one is set up by the Russians as a puppet government? The puppet government formally controls territory that is never annexed directly by Russian forces.

predicts YES

@mariopasquato In that scenario I would probably resolve YES. great question though, it highlights a key difference between the resolution criteria and what you would naively think from just the title.

@DylanSlagh There is space even for more nuance. Imagine a scenario where part of the current government ousts Zelenski (legally or not) and forms a new government that signs a peace agreement with Russia and is regarded as a puppet government by some but not by others.

predicts YES

@mariopasquato That would probably resolve NO. That’s what I was trying to convey with this line in the description:

>Wikipedia articles about the war say that it is over and say that russias victory was decisive.

I was imagining something more akin to the front collapsing and russian forces marching to Ukraine's western borders. If that doesn’t happen this market is much less likely to resolve YES. (although it’s still possible)

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